Better Luck Next Year?

blackenterprise.com readers see economic recovery after fourth quarter 2002

It’s no secret that the United States is in a recession — a period marked by a decline in business activity, generally identified as two or three consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product or GDP. In other words, goods and services provided within the United States are selling at lower than normal levels.

Blackenterprise.com (blackenterprise.com) conducted an online survey. Readers were asked to give their opinion on when they think the economy will pick up. Some 33% felt the upswing will happen in 2003. Those predicting second- and third-quarter recoveries were neck and neck with 26% and 28% of the votes, respectively. Very few (8% and 5%) expected a first- or fourth-quarter comeback.

Historically, recessions average just under a year–roughly 11 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEA). As the current downturn began at the end of the first quarter of 2001 (March), it could be inferred that things will begin to pick up in the first or second quarter of 2002. The X factor, of course, is any aftereffects of the War on Terrorism or fiscal aid from Washington, D.C.

According to the NBEA, consumer psychology is key to the timing of the recovery. If consumers increase in spending, the current recession may follow the recent average pattern and become history before the end of spring.

SOURCE: B.E. RESEARCH

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