work in Clinton’s favor. “People may recollect the economic prosperity during his presidency and compare it with the economic misery that they’re faced with today; thus, experience in combination with change will trump change by itself,” he adds .
The conventional wisdom is that the race between the two Democrats will most likely extend until the end of March. “I expect it to be effectively a tie. Obama is going to win more states than Clinton, but she’ll probably win larger states so the contest will go on,” says Smith. The fact that there will be just a few primaries a week during that period will help Obama because he’ll be able to spend much more time in each state and he still has a lot of money left to spend.
Tuesday will be less dramatic for the Republicans. In many of the races, the winner takes all of the delegates, and Arizona Sen. John McCain continues to maintain a significant lead over competitors: former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Despite his lead, however, McCain still has to convince Republicans that he’s a true conservative. “He’s got to make the sale. California, which is not winner takes all, is especially bad for McCain because it’s so gerrymandered that half of its congressional districts have virtually no Republicans in them,” says Bositis. “Romney needs to start picking up some delegates even if he doesn’t win some of the states. He needs to show he’s making progress toward getting the nomination.”