Will Two Billion Jobs Disappear by 2030?

Will two billion jobs disappear by 2030? Futurist Thomas Frey seems to think so. During a recent talk at TEDxReset in Istanbul, Turkey, he predicted 50% of the jobs worldwide would disappear over the span of the next 18 years. In the U.S. we have already seen manual labor jobs outsourced to other countries. As we move towards a knowledge-based economy, menial/manual labor jobs will continue to trend in this direction. This is especially true for clerical and office support jobs, due to technology like online faxing services and mobile applications. These technologies allow businesses to manage many traditional administrative services with less human intervention. Although just theories, Frey’s ideas are quite intriguing and lead to an interesting discussion about where the job market is going in terms of the jobs to be lost and the employment opportunities that will emerge to replace those positions.

The Industries Most Likely to Be Impacted

During his talk, Frey discussed five industries that will see the most job loss in the coming years due to technological advancements, but we’ll focus on the following four: (1) automobile transportation, (2) education, (3) 3D printing, and (4) bots.

Automobile Transportation

Driverless technology already exists and goes by the legal name of “autonomous car.” It is currently only legal in one state Nevada, but the Google Driverless Car project is working to help expand the adoption of this technology.

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:

• Elimination of taxi, limo, bus, mail and truck drivers, as well as FedEx and UPS delivery jobs
• Reduction in the number of manufactured vehicles and shifting to transportation-on-demand systems

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Created:

• Delivery dispatchers
• Automated traffic architects, engineers, and designers
• Driverless “ride experience” people and operating system engineers

Education

The movement of open courseware education was popularized by iTunes U

. Now there’s Khan Academy and MIT creating models for established universities and organizations that want to provide education for anyone anywhere.

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:

• Elimination of teachers, trainers and professors

Thomas Frey Theory of Jobs Created:

• Coaches, course designers and learning camps

Click here to continue reading…

3D Printing

3D printing is a phrase used to describe the process of creating three-dimensional objects from a digital file using a materials printer, in a manner similar to printing images on paper. This rapid prototyping process allows users to create a prototype of a single product.

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:

• Clothing retailers eliminated because you can print customized clothes at home
• Shoe manufactures eliminated because you can print customized shoes at home
• Various construction industries would be eliminated due to people’s ability to print construction material, lumber, drywall, concrete, and other material on site

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Created:

• 3D printer design, engineering, and manufacturing positions
• 3D printer repairmen
• 3D printer stylists, product designers, and engineers

Bots

Robots and automation that eliminates human jobs has been in development for a while. This argument has been discussed in relationship to the automotive industry and other manufacturing intensive industries.

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:

• Bots would replace fishermen, miners, farmers, and inspectors

Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Created:

• Robot designers, engineers, repairmen, dispatchers, trainers, and fashion designers

Here is my conclusion on Frey’s predictions: I find it very interesting when people attempt to predict the future but he does have some interesting thoughts that force you to think about technology and how it will disrupt industries and jobs. We have to prepare the next generation of workers for jobs that don’t exist today. To that point, I agree wholeheartedly with the idea of

pushing the importance of STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics] education. Here is where I disagree: Frey’s belief that 3D printers will eliminate shoe and clothing manufacturers, and his theory about the elimination of teachers. I’m no futurist but I believe open courseware and solutions like iTunes U will positively impact the educational landscape moving forward.

You can click here to read Frey’s theories in full, then let me know your thoughts on his prediction for jobs in 2030 in the comments section below.