The third and final presidential candidate debate Oct. 15 between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama was not the game-changing event Republicans had hoped it would be. But the good news for McCain is that by many political analysts’ and observers’ accounts, it was his best showing yet. He was vintage McCain, the maverick reformer who relishes a comeback fight, and was on point and relentless in his attacks on his opponent. The bad news is that after a hard-hitting final round, not much has changed in this year’s race for the White House. Obama continues to hold his lead in battleground states from Colorado to Virginia by a margin of 1.2% to 8.1%, and although McCain may have won the debate, Obama definitely didn’t lose.
If that doesn’t make sense, it may be because political pros and the average Joe view such events through different lenses. “For the first 45 minutes, it was McCain’s debate. He was in command and winning,” says Michael Tanner, a Cato Institute senior fellow. “Obama seemed to be more on the defensive during the first half and was doing a lot of explaining. There’s an old adage in politics that if you’re explaining, you’re losing. It’s always best to be the guy making the attacks than the guy having to defend yourself.”
But somewhere around that mid-way point, McCain grew testy. He was hurt that Obama wouldn’t apologize for comments Georgia Rep. John Lewis made linking his campaign tactics to segregationist Gov. George Wallace, and morphed into what Tanner calls “the grumpy old guy.” That’s the final and lasting image that voters were left with, which may explain why in flash polls conducted after the debate they deemed Obama the winner.
Eighteen days can seem like an eternity to voters who just want Election Day to come and go so that the nation can begin to move forward, but it’s more like a lifetime in the span of a political campaign. So, where do the candidates go from here?
“As the phrase goes, I think Obama should keep on keeping on. He has clearly, through the debates, convinced some skeptics that he’s safe or at least safe enough as a choice for president,” says William Galston, a Brookings Institution senior fellow. “And his temperament and demeanor have worn very well with swing voters-better than a lot of us might have perceived. After eight years of decisions based on gut instincts, the idea that the next president might be inclined to look before he leaps is pretty attractive.”
But the Obama campaign cannot take his lead for granted, Galston warns. And the campaign must be sure to nail down the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election and focus especially on states that might be more of a stretch later. Larry Berman, a University of California-Davis political scientist, doesn’t think that will be a problem. After trying to find enough McCain-friendly states to get the Republican to that magic number, he concluded that the numbers just didn’t add up. And the more McCain has to focus on states that he thought he had in his bag to begin with, the more difficult it will be to get there, Berman adds.
“Obama has done to McCain what he did to Hillary Clinton: He’s out-organized and out-strategized both of them. Here is this guy whose resume in terms of experience doesn’t compare to either but has demonstrated something that is pretty extraordinary in politics,” Berman says. “He figured out how to neutralize his inexperience against two formidable challengers, one in the Democratic primaries and one in the general election, through organization and grassroots efforts and the resonance of his message Tanner also agrees that the campaign is looking pretty dismal for McCain. He says the Republican base, which only a few weeks ago felt energized by the addition of Gov. Sarah Palin to the ticket, is feeling demoralized again because they keep hearing their side is losing, and McCain’s performance on the campaign trail has been a reflection of those sentiments. Temperament has also become a central theme of the presidential campaign.
“Obama has looked very presidential and very cool in a crisis. I’m not sure how that will wear in the long term, but for election purposes it looks very good. When people are scared, he’s very reassuring,” Tanner says. McCain, on the other hand, appears to feel entitled to the presidency, he’s mad that he’s losing, and it shows. “He looks at all that he’s done in his life, from the POW days to Congress to the Senate, and feels this, by right, should be his job. It’s also why he’s never had a theme for his campaign, but the American people are saying that that’s not enough.”
Recent economic events have forced the candidates to focus more on the voters than each other, and that’s good news for voters, Galston says. “The American people now have a reasonably good basis for comparing them, not just as individuals but as the leaders of parties that prescribe to very different agendas.”