Artificial intelligence (AI) could begin reshaping workers’ paychecks before it eliminates their jobs, as emerging research suggests employees in occupations highly exposed to AI may experience slower wage growth even without widespread layoffs, CNBC reports.
The concern comes as U.S. wage growth shows signs of cooling. Inflation-adjusted wages and salaries fell 0.4% year over year through June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index. Labor’s share of nonfarm business output fell to 52.8% in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level since the government began tracking the measure in 1947
.Research from Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok and Sania Edlich found that workers in occupations considered highly exposed to AI experienced inflation-adjusted wage growth that was 6.7 percentage points slower after 2023 than workers in less-exposed occupations. The researchers found no statistically significant effect on employment.
The findings suggest employers could capture some AI-driven productivity gains through slower wage growth rather than workforce reductions, though economists caution that the evidence remains preliminary.
“It’s absolutely the case that AI could be affecting the demand for certain types of jobs,” Economic Policy Institute Senior Economist Ben Zipperer told the outlet. However, Zipperer said Apollo’s sample was too small to establish a convincing connection.
Apollo analyzed 321 of roughly 800 BLS occupations, with only 11 meeting the study’s threshold for high AI exposure. The researchers characterized their findings as “early evidence.”
MIT economics professor Daron Acemoglu also told the outlet there is no convincing evidence yet of meaningful wage effects across specific areas or demographic groups. However, he said, evidence is mounting that AI is affecting entry-level jobs.
“Ultimately, given that the U.S. labor market is relatively flexible and has a fairly weak social safety net, I expect the impact on wages to be bigger than those on employment,” Acemoglu said.
Dallas Fed researchers warned that AI could disrupt the traditional white-collar career ladder by automating entry-level tasks that workers previously performed while developing experience and expertise.
Acemoglu said AI does not have to function
solely as an automation tool. It could instead complement workers by creating new tasks and areas of expertise, but achieving that outcome would require investments and policies centered on workers rather than what he called a “ceaseless race to replace workers.”RELATED CONTENT: Your AI-Generated Resume Could Be Hurting Your Job Search