With economic uncertainty rising and foot traffic at major retailers slowing, emerging beauty founders are shifting away from big retail deals and rethinking their growth strategies.
New industry research indicates that geopolitical and economic uncertainty, market saturation, and changing consumer preferences are expected to slow the beauty and personal care sector to around 5% annual growth through 2030, Forbes reports. This is a sharp drop from the roughly 7% annual growth the global beauty market experienced between 2022 and 2024, prompting companies to rethink growth strategies instead of relying on straightforward retail expansion.
Amid the current economic climate, beauty founders are skipping the traditional path to growth, following the example of many millennial entrepreneurs who build long-term leverage without giving up equity or control.
That’s the approach Shaina Rainford took with her natural haircare brand, Bask and Lather Co. The nurse practitioner-turned-entrepreneur bypassed chasing retail shelf space to focus on building direct relationships with consumers and platforms, avoiding the traditional gatekeepers.
“TikTok allows us to get in front of consumers,” Rainford said. “Instagram allows us to nurture those relationships. They serve two different purposes.”
Rainford’s approach matches that of many millennial and Gen Z founders who paved their own lanes by generating demand on their own, maintaining control over distribution, and entering retail only when it won’t hurt margins or compromise product quality.
For her, it’s paid off.
“By March of 2021, we were selling so much product that our monthly revenue replaced my one-year salary,” Rainford said of Bask and Lather’s early growth. “We haven’t even touched retail yet, and we are one of the largest, if not the largest, Black-owned textured hair care companies.”
For decades, retail was long seen as the fastest route to scale and to access millions of weekly shoppers. But that model relied on steady in-store demand and predictable growth—assumptions now challenged by tariffs, inflation, and politically-fueled retailer boycotts.
With foot traffic and online visits declining at many big-box stores, digitally native brands are leveraging social influence to drive cultural impact and long-term growth, giving founders the power to enter retail on their own terms rather than out of necessity.
“When you move too quickly, people end up having to sell off pieces of their business or take on debt,” Rainford said. “Once you have other stakeholders, they’re not going to care about your customer the way you do.”
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