Blue Collar Support

Following Sen. Barack Obama’s recent thumping in Democratic primary states that have large working-class or rural white voting populations, political analysts question whether those voters will support him in a general election. Sen. Hillary Clinton has highlighted this gap in support in addition to pointing out how important she believes these voting populations will be if a Democrat is to take back the White House this fall. Some pundits have repeatedly asked: Could their reluctance to vote for Obama be a “black thing?”

It is definitely an elephant in the room, says Michael Dimock, an associate director at the Pew Research Center. “There is the perspective that race is a part of this–that he appears different to people, that there are people for whom race is still a factor–and that’s certainly affecting some segments of voters within the Democratic primaries and potentially in the general election,” he says.

According to exit polls conducted in a number of states, some voters admitted that race was a factor in how they cast their ballots. In Pennsylvania, for example, one in five voters said race was a factor for them and supported Clinton by 59 to 41. White voters in that state who said race was a factor overwhelmingly chose Sen. Clinton over Obama by a margin of 76% to 24%. “Most whites said it’s a factor in their vote, so it’s a small slice of the public, potentially, but it is out there,” Dimock says.

It’s also not new, says Anthony Corrado, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. “I’m not sure it’s as big a problem as it’s been highlighted. Obama has shown surprisingly strong support among white voters, particularly among better-educated, middle-income white voters. The issue regarding the rural, white, working-class, less-educated cohort shows that in a race with Clinton, particularly in the Midwestern industrial belt, that that vote preferred her to him,” he says.

David Bositis, senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, believes that Obama’s so-called blue-collar problem is more regionally and culturally based, citing the results in Oregon, which also has a large white working-class voting population, compared with how little support he received from this group in West Virginia. “There’s a problem of a cultural connection with Appalachia,” Bositis says. “To

West Virginia voters, he tends to come across as very intellectual and elite, so that’s one problem. And they tend to be more comfortable with what they’re familiar with and they’re obviously more familiar and comfortable with Clinton than Obama.”

So, how can he win over this core constituency? Bositis doesn’t believe Obama necessarily has to do anything other than “run a good campaign.”
“And if he picks the right vice president, like Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, he’ll do well enough with those voters,” Bositis adds.

But he also believes Obama can win without them. “He already has a coalition that is heavy on more educated white voters, and they are a larger part of the population than white working-class voters.” Bostis predicts that Clinton’s huge coalition of women will also come over to Obama’s side “and will not support McCain, simply because the Democrats are the party of women.”

Obama may be able to make some headway, however, by focusing part of his message on the fact that he was raised by a single mother, who sometimes relied on food stamps to feed her family, and his experience as a community organizer in Chicago, where he fought hard for people who share those voters’ experiences. “One real advantage that he has that [the 2004 nominee] Sen. John Kerry didn’t is [that] he’s campaigned so widely and in so many states, [and he] has been introduced to the electorate in ways that previous nominees couldn’t. Throughout summer, he will do more work in reintroducing himself, largely by telling more of his background and story, which I think will be a compelling narrative, particularly for lower-income voters,” Corrado says.

Obama will also need to strengthen his image as someone who will be firm in areas of foreign policy and national security. According to Pew Research findings earlier this year, 43% of voters said they believed Obama would not be tough enough. “That’s a real contrast to Sen. John McCain, who only 16% thought wouldn’t be tough enough. As we move into the general election dynamic, up against a candidate like McCain, that divide is potentially a big issue,” Dimock says. “I’m sure the McCain campaign is seeing these polls and will focus on those themes.”

It will help to take a page out of former president Bill Clinton’s playbook and remember that it’s still the economy. “McCain’s pretty unyielding free trade stance will help Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and places like that,” says John Fortier, of the American Enterprise Institute. “Those are areas he can appeal to.” Fortier adds that “emphasizing the differences between Democrats and Republicans more generally as a party and issues like the scary economy will help, but it won’t win over voters who are more inclined culturally to not vote for him.”

Then of course, there are the endorsements, particularly those coming from superdelegates. Despite his state’s enormous support of Clinton in West Virginia’s recent primary, the state’s beloved and long-serving senior senator, Robert Byrd, has endorsed Obama. “Our general finding is endorsements don’t move the needle substantially, but can certainly help. He’ll need to make the case in his own speeches, but also through proxies,” Dimock says. “Byrd is a good example: He’s a very beloved figure within his state who has credibility. People understand that he is of them and he can go to bat for Obama in ways that can help him.”