Super Tuesday’s final tallies are in and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain in a dead heat to the finish line. That finish, however, may not come until the Democratic Party gathers in Denver for its national convention in August.
As the primary results illustrate, Democratic voters are in a quandary, unable to make a decisive choice between two viable candidates. Support is breaking down solidly along demographic lines. In state after state, it’s Dunkin Donuts versus Starbucks, black versus brown, and men versus women. Clinton has established a solid base of Latino, women, working class, and older voters. Obama’s support comes mainly from African Americans, young adults, men, and well-educated, upper-income voters.
Obama has clearly energized young voters who have embraced his message of change. But that presents an opportunity for Clinton, says James Taylor, an associate professor of politics at the University of San Francisco, to poach more women from the Obama camp.
“Clinton has to make more explicit appeals to remind young women about her credentials as a student at Wellesley College and how she was motivated to take her ambitions, goals, and dreams to another level,” he says. “So many barriers have been knocked down since then and she epitomizes much of that. More mature women already get it,” Taylor says.
Conversely, Obama needs to craft a message that will resonate with Latinos and working-class voters. “He can appeal to them by altering his message and talking about the economy and jobs. Clinton has the advantage there, but he can alter his message and chip away at that,” says San Francisco State professor of political science Robert Smith.
Taylor agrees. “He needs to appeal to Latinos by talking about bread-and-butter issues and concrete ways his agenda will benefit them. It doesn’t need to be an ethnic appeal—job creation, healthcare, and housing are the issues that will resonate more with Latinos and others [his campaign is] not tapping into. Clinton’s doing that,” Taylor adds.
Predictions have proven futile in this most unpredictable of campaign seasons, but based on the demographics, each candidate has an advantage in upcoming races. Projections for upcom
ing primaries have Obama likely to win this weekend in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington, with Maine going to Clinton. He is also heavily favored in Tuesday’s “Chesapeake Primaries” taking place in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., which includes a large base of African American and upper-income voters. But Clinton has the biggest advantage in the big three: Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, slated for March and April.The party’s super delegates are going to be critical if there is no clear nominee this spring. This uncommitted group of delegates is made up of elected and party officials who don’t have to make a decision until the convention. But Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean is determined to avoid a protracted convention, which he believes will damage any Democrat’s prospects in the fall. “It would be bad for the party and voters. Based on turnout, the longer this process goes on, the greater the resentment on the losing side. But the notion that [either candidate] is just going to walk away in a cordial fashion is probably overly optimistic,” says Vincent Hutching, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan. “Both
candidates at this stage have a sense of entitlement—that it belongs to them—and their supporters agree. It’s easy to say one will take the [vice presidential slot], but no one wants that. It could really be a problem in the not too distant future because someone’s going to be disappointed.”“The modern convention is not built for conflict; it’s a media game and the party wants to present a unified party to the nation. Voters don’t like nasty and they don’t want to see that on television. Conventions are a unity play,” says Ronald Walters , a political science professor at the University of Maryland. “Barack Obama has already suggested that the popular vote ought to be the controlling factor even with super delegates. How do they go against the popular vote? Both candidates have power and really split the party down the middle. She is the establishment, centrist right wing and he’s the new leader of the progressive wing. So this has to be handled very, very delicately.”
On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has dropped out of
the race, for the good of his party and the country, he says. But Hutchings says, “He saw the writing on the wall. Given that Republicans have winner takes all in most states, it was mathematically impossible for him to win.” So now there are two, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee says he’s not giving up. With Romney out, he may have even greater appeal among conservatives and has proven popular in the South.The eventual Democratic nominee is widely believed to be facing a contest against Arizona Sen. John McCain, who is making a fervent effort to prove his own conservative bona fides. “He is going to be the nominee, but has to begin repairing the rift between the conservative movement and himself,” says Michael Fauntroy, an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University. “But the specter of a President Hillary Clinton or President Barack Obama will cause them to hold their noses and support McCain. They may not like him, but the idea of a [Obama or Clinton] win is more than they can take.