Looking Forward, Democrats Hope for November Trifecta

There’s a theory prescribed to by political observers and operatives that when a party benefits from a “wave election” one year, the next time around it’s going to lose seats. But the Democratic Party, which regained the majority in both chambers of Congress in 2006, hopes to beat the historical odds and actually increase those numbers in November. With a record number of retiring House Republicans and the loss of three conservative seats in special elections this year, the Democrats might just get their wish.

“Right now we’re targeting upwards of 50 GOP [incumbent and open] seats in every region of the country, from Alaska to Florida,” explains Doug Thornell, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). “What we’re really trying to do is beat history and win seats in an election cycle when history tells us we should actually lose some.”

There’s no question that Republicans are on the defense. Every House seat is up for re-election, and according to the Cook Political Report, of those, 23 Republicans and three Democrats are retiring; four Democrats and three Republicans are seeking other office; and one member from each party was defeated in primaries. Among the most competitive races, Democrats have 19 seats listed as leaning their way or toss-ups, versus the Republicans’ 29 of which 18 are open.

On the Senate side, where 35 lawmakers are up for re-election, Cook reports that of the 12 Democrats, 10 are solid seats, with the remaining two leaning their way. Across the aisle, there are 23 Republicans up for re-election, with six toss-up seats, and one seat in Virginia that will likely go Democrat. The remaining four are likely or leaning Republican.

Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Louisiana Democrat, is in a close race against GOP challenger and state treasurer Jack Kennedy, who, interestingly, is a former Democrat. According to RealPolitics.com, the loss of black voters who’ve relocated as a result of Hurricane Katrina could hurt Landrieu. New York Republican Rep. Vince Fossella

has been forced to resign his seat after a DUI stop revealed him to have a secret second family. The GOP had hoped to run a wealthy self-funding candidate, Frank Powers, to fill this now toss-up seat. Unfortunately, Powers, who was 68, died in his sleep this past Sunday.

“I think [the special election losses] were a warning for Republicans that they can take nothing for granted this year,” says Frank Donatelli, Republican National Committee co-chair. “We’ll have to work hard to win Republicans and add to that a sufficient number of independents and some Democrats to put together personal winning coalitions. The environment is challenging, but we have a number of very good candidates.”

Thornell says Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted, either, and have a front-line program to assist incumbents facing the most competitive races. In addition, the DCCC has recruited what it considers to be a strong group of new Democratic challengers. “I think the strength of our recruitment efforts is epitomized by

the three special elections we won in Republican territory that had been represented by Republicans for years, and that George W. Bush carried easily in 2000 and 2004,” Thornell says. “Republicans have had a hard time finding candidates in a number of districts, primarily because of the strength of our front-liners. The strength of our front-line members has dissuaded a number of Republican recruits from actually entering the race.”

Both parties hope the presidential election will help increase their chances down ballot. House majority whip, Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, said one of the factors in his decision to endorse Sen. Barack Obama was his ability to energize voters and make some states much more competitive than they have been in the past, which would benefit House Democrats. Citing an Ohio district where African Americans make up approximately 25% of the electorate but produced low turnout numbers at the polls, he says, “I cannot imagine that with Obama on the ticket that we won’t get a bump in turnout in that district, and there are others like it.” Clyburn also expects many Southern states, that once seemed forever red, could very well turn blue because of their significant numbers of black voters coming out to support Obama at the top of the ticket.

David Bositis, senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, echoes that belief. He says, “Obama is going to greatly increase the turnout of black voters and young voters, and that’s going to seriously hurt the Republicans in many districts.” Bositis says that President Bush’s ratings in the polls have also hurt the GOP.

Donatelli admits that Bush’s popularity has diminished since he was elected, but says, “You have to play the hand you’re dealt, and it’s up to our candidates to make sure the races are focused on them and their issues and priorities. It should not be about the president. It ought to be about our candidate versus their candidate.”