Never have the choices been wider. Never have the stakes for 21st-century America been higher. The 2008 presidential campaign has already made history in terms of its diverse slate of candidates, the cost of the race, and its early start: There will be seven primaries and caucuses next month, and Super Tuesday, a day on which as many as 18 key primaries and caucuses take place, has been moved to February from March.
At press time, there were 17 candidates crowding the presidential field. And, for the first time in the history of presidential politics, the contenders represent America’s melting pot in its racial, gender, and religious diversity: Candidates include an African American, a woman, a Latino, and a member of the Mormon faith. And, for the first time since 1928, an incumbent president or vice president is not seeking the White House. “It’s unique because no party from an incumbency standpoint has that ability to run from the Rose Garden,” says state senator and University of Denver political scientist Peter Groff (D-Colo.). “This allows folks to talk about what type of White House they’ll create. They can build their own playing field, with their own team and vision.”
The new president will have to contend with the Bush administration’s tattered foreign policy image, the economy, civil liberties, and other issues. Some of the most pressing concerns facing the new chief executive will be troop withdrawal from Iraq, reviving a flagging economy, and repairing the country’s tarnished reputation among the world’s industrialized and developing nations.
“Every year, candidates and their supporters say this is the most important election in generations. This one actually is,” says Michael Fauntroy, a George Mason University political scientist. “Hopefully, we can find a president
capable of some serious diplomacy. We as a nation need a president who can address the country’s security concerns with more than just a guns-and-bullets approach, which only makes us less secure going forward.”
James Lance Taylor, associate professor of politics at the University of San Francisco, believes not enough attention is being paid to the economic costs of the Iraq war. “The war front is being carried out at the expense of the home front,” he maintains. “Many analysts are failing to make the connection between the war and its domestic impact as it relates to Hurricane Katrina–for example, how the federal government earmarked funds for levees and diverted them to Iraq.”
The candidates are now gearing up for their first big campaign battles in major primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. “These states are important for momentum,” Taylor says. “Winning those primaries helps tremendously with fundraising and implies you have an appeal to middle-America in states with significant Electoral College votes.”
black enterprise reviewed the latest polling data and results to choose its frontrunners for the party nominations of the 17 candidates in the race. Moreover, we asked them to provide their platform on the economy, national defense, various social issues, and any other topic they feel strongly about–which we labeled “the wild card.” While most candidates were eager to respond, Republican Rudolph Giuliani declined to participate–the former New York City mayor’s responses come from his Website–as do the responses for Republican Fred Thompson.
Using data from Iowa Electronic Markets, a research and teaching tool hosted by the faculty at the University of Iowa’s Henry B. Tipple College of Business, be has determined each candidate’s probability of winning the party’s nomination. According to David Bositis, senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., this data has predicted the outcomes of races with remarkable accuracy for the past 20 years. Open the fold for insight into the candidates’ priorities and potential.
Hillary Clinton
Born Oct. 26, 1947 (Age: 60)
Chicago
Spouse Former President Bill Clinton
Alma mater Wellesley College; Yale University Law School
Profession Junior U.S. senator from New York (since 2001); Attorney
Religion United Methodist
ECONOMY
I will empower and invest in urban America. I will restore our investments in Community Development Block Grants. For many cities, CDBG funding is the most important federal aid they get for things like affordable housing, job creation, and economic development. I will expand microfinance programs, empowerment zones, and other efforts to get more economic opportunity and investment in our urban cores.
NATIONAL SECURITY
I have introduced legislation (Iraq Troop Protection and Reduction Act) to begin bringing our troops home within 90 days. And I have joined other Democrats to add provisions to the Defense Authorization bill that would force the president to abandon his failed policy in Iraq. Among those provisions is legislation I am co-sponsoring to de-authorize the war and eliminate the president’s authority to conduct the war. If he continues to refuse to do so I am prepared to end the war myself as president.
SOCIAL POLICY
As president, I will expand Head Start and invest $10 billion per year to establish universal, high-quality pre-kindergarten education for all 4-year-old children in America. This plan will expand access to the more than 3 million 4-year-olds who are not enrolled in state pre-kindergarten programs, providing states with matching funds to devise their own programs and requiring that classes be taught by highly-trained teachers.
WILD CARD
As president, I will fully fund No Child Left Behind. I also believe we should do much more to recruit, retain, and support teachers. I will work to make college affordable and accessible for all who want to attend. The Pell Grant and other federal financial assistance programs have failed to keep pace with the rise in cost. I have introduced legislation to increase the maximum Pell Grant, reduce the cost of student loans, increase the HOPE [scholarship] and Lifetime Learning tax credits, and reign in the growing cost of college.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has a whopping 73% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. She’s running a professional campaign that highlights her experience as both a senator and former first lady, and she has worked hard to connect with different constituents. But will Americans vote for a woman for president?
BARACK OBAMA
Born Aug. 4, 1961 (Age: 46)
Honolulu
Spouse Michelle Obama
Alma mater Columbia University; Harvard Law School
Profession Junior U.S. senator from Illinois (since 2005);
Illinois state senator (1997—2004); Civil rights lawyer
Religion United Church of Christ
ECONOMY
My middle-class tax relief plan would provide $80 billion to $85 billion in tax cuts to 150 million workers, seniors, and homeowners by providing a tax cut of up to $1,000–easing the burden on the middle class by providing a universal homeowner’s tax credit to those who do not itemize their deductions, eliminating the income tax for any American senior making less than $50,000 per year, simplifying tax filings so millions of Americans can do their taxes in less than five minutes.
NATIONAL SECURITY
This war has fueled al-Qaida and helped galvanize terrorist organizations, making the world less safe. I introduced a plan in January for a phased redeployment of U.S. troops engaged in combat operations. This redeployment will be both substantial and gradual and planned under the guidance of our military commanders. A residual U.S. presence may remain in Iraq for force protection, training of Iraqi security forces, and counter-terrorism operations.
SOCIAL POLICY
My plan will guarantee coverage for every American through partnerships among employers, p
rivate health plans, the federal government, and the states. It will establish a new public insurance program, available to Americans who neither qualify for Medicaid or State Children’s Health Insurance Plan nor have access to insurance through their employers, as well as small businesses that want to offer insurance to their employees.
WILD CARD
I will increase federal funding for anti-poverty programs. In addition to passing my universal healthcare plan, I will fully fund the Community Development Block Grant program and create an Affordable Housing Trust Fund. I will increase funding for transitional jobs and career pathways programs and provide greater supports for ex-offenders and their families. I will ensure that minimum wage is indexed for inflation. And I will expand eligibility and increase the Earned Income Tax Credit.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, with a 14.5% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, has literally given Clinton a run for the money when it comes to fundraising prowess. He has also infused the race with excitement due to his charisma and message of change and hope. But his performance in debates and on the stump makes some people wonder whether he truly has the grit needed to lead the nation.
JOHN EDWARDS
Born June 10, 1953 (Age: 54)
Seneca, South Carolina
Spouse Elizabeth Edwards
Alma mater North Carolina State University; University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill
Profession Former U.S. senator from
North Carolina (1999—2005); Attorney
Religion United Methodist
ECONOMY
The continuing impact of history is clear in the racial wealth gap. African Americans have less than a dime in wealth for every dollar that white families have. I have proposed a series of initiatives to help families realize financial security, including creating new tax credits to match the savings of low- and middle-income families. Predatory lenders have targeted African American homeowners, resulting in billions of dollars in lost equity and neighborhoods riddled with foreclosures.
NATIONAL SECURITY
As commander-in-chief, I will never hesitate to apply the full extent of our security apparatus to protect our vital interests, take measures to root out terrorist cells, and strike swiftly and forcefully against those who seek to harm us. We must stay on the offensive against both terrorism and its causes. Iraq’s problems cannot be solved by the U.S. military. For over a year, I have argued for an immediate withdrawal of 40,000 to 50,000 U.S. combat troops from Iraq, followed by an orderly and complete withdrawal of all combat troops.
SOCIAL POLICY
I have released a comprehensive set of proposals to get New Orleans and the rest of the Gulf [region] back on its feet. We need to address the healthcare crisis and spur economic growth in the healthcare sector, make the streets safe with a surge of federal resources, fully fund the Road Home housing assistance program and address rental housing needs, and hold government and private contractors accountable [for this slow recovery].
WILD CARD
We should also reform one-size-fits-all mandatory minimum sentences for first-time, nonviolent offenses. We also need more alternatives to incarceration, such as drug courts for first-time, nonviolent offenders. There are now more than 2 million inmates in America. Reintegration needs to begin while they are still in prison with drug treatment, literacy, and education. Then we need to help them find work. I have proposed 1 million stepping-stone jobs to help people get a toehold in the workforce.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has a 7.7% chance of winning his party’s nomination. While he appears more willing to challenge Clinton’s policy proposals, he fails to capture voters’ imaginations in the same manner as his competition.
RUDOLPH GIULIANI
Born May 28, 1944 (Age: 63)
Brooklyn, New York
Spouse Judith Nathan;
Donna Hanover (divorced);
Regina Peruggi (divorced)
Alma mater Manhattan College; New York University Law School
Profession Former mayor of New York City (1994—2001);
U.S. attorney (1983—1989); Businessman
Religion Roman Catholic
Note: This candidate refused to respond to be’s query.
ECONOMY
I’ve seen how pro-growth policies lead to broader prosperity. We’ll not only keep the current tax cuts in place or their equivalent, we’ll enact additional tax relief and give the death tax the death penalty. I will cut taxes to keep America’s economy strong and create jobs by tying the Alternative Minimum Tax to inflation and lower, more competitive corporate tax rates; encourage savings and create new savings incentives by expanding tax-free savings accounts and reform the tax treatment of healthcare.
NATIONAL SECURITY
I will expand America’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world. I will strengthen America’s 21st-century workforce, create a Global Prosperity Initiative [to promote higher living standards worldwide and to reform the International Monetary Fund and the distribution of foreign aid], aggressively advance free trade, refocus the State Department and reform Foreign Service, combat anti-Americanism, and expand U.S.-Muslim exchange programs.
SOCIAL POLICY
I will give Americans more control over and access to healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions. I will transform bureaucracies and change healthcare delivery by reforming the medical liability legal system, rewarding states for innovative solutions, requiring availability of low-cost insurance options, and streamlining the FDA evaluation process for new drugs. In addition, I will invest in health information technologies to reduce medical errors, improve efficiency, and detect health threats.
WILD CARD
Protecting children is a fundamental responsibility of good government. I will promote adoption as a responsible and rewarding choice, give states control of child welfare spending, build partnerships with faith-based organizations, and make the $10,000 adoption tax credit permanent. I will [reduce abortion] by promoting a culture of life-encouraging informed decisions, improving federal abortion data, and opposing any attempt to change restrictions on federal funding for abortion.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has a 39.6% chance of winning the Republican nomination. Based on his tenure as mayor, not to mention the three marriages, Giuliani is definitely not a typical conservative Republican. He is, however, considered the GOP’s best bet in a contest against a Democratic nominee.
MITT ROMNEY
Born Aug. 19, 1942 (Age: 65)
Sheffield, Alabama
Spouse Jeri Thompson
Sarah Elizabeth Lindsey (Knestrick)(divorced)
Alma mater Memphis State University; Vanderbilt University
Profession Former U.S. senator from Tennessee (1994—2003);
Actor; Lawyer; Lobbyist; Radio personality
Religion Church of Christ
Note: This information was provided by this candidate’s Website.
ECONOMY
I have pledged not to raise taxes. I will make the Bush tax cuts permanent, abolish
NATIONAL SECURITY
If elected, one of my first acts would be to call for a summit of the leading developed nations and friends and allies in the Muslim world to create a worldwide strategy to support moderate Muslims in their effort to defeat radical and violent Islam. I envision tha
t the summit would lead to the creation of a Partnership for Prosperity and Progress: a coalition that would assemble resources to support public schools, new trade, microcredit and banking, the rule of law, human rights, basic healthcare, and free-market policies.
SOCIAL POLICY
I support an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that defines marriage as between a man and a woman. Marriage is fundamentally an institution about the development and nurturing of children. Every child deserves a mom and a dad. We must recognize the traditional union of a man and a woman as the bedrock of the family in our society. If our courts are determined to undermine this principle, then we have no choice but to defend it through a constitutional amendment.
WILD CARD
I believe that we can put conservative principles to work to ensure that every American has access to quality, affordable health insurance. I propose the following steps, among others, to improve America’s healthcare system: Give states incentives to deregulate and reform their health insurance markets; redirect existing spending on “free care” to help the low-income, uninsured purchase private insurance; improve Health Savings Accounts and make qualified medical expenses fully deductible.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 28.2% chance of winning the nomination. Romney has a liberal–by Republican standards–record as governor of Massachusetts. Many view him as wishy-washy on the issue of abortion and stem-cell research because he went from pro-choice to pro-life shortly before announcing his presidential bid. And then there’s his Mormon faith and how that will play out in the South.
FRED THOMPSON
Born March 12, 1947 (Age: 60)
Detroit
Spouse Ann Romney
Alma mater Brigham Young University; Harvard Law School
Profession Former governor of Massachusetts (2003—2007); Businessman; President and CEO of the 2002 Olympic Winter Games
Religion The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon)
ECONOMY
The U.S. tax code is broken and [is] a burden on U.S. taxpayers and businesses, large and small. Today’s tax code is particularly hostile to savings and investment, and it shows. To ensure America’s long-term prosperity and economic security, I am committed to fundamental tax reform built on the principles of simplicity, fairness, and growth; a new tax code that gets the government out of our citizens’ pocketbooks while enhancing U.S. competitiveness abroad; and dissolution of the IRS as we know it.
NATIONAL SECURITY
The first responsibility of government is to protect the American people, the homeland, and our way of life. I am committed to a larger, more capable, and more modern military; a missile defense system that can protect the U.S. and our allies from long-range ballistic missiles; an enhanced intelligence community focused on terrorism and proliferation; a robust approach to homeland security that will protect our nation from terrorists and [weapons of mass destruction]; and a strengthened system of global alliances.
SOCIAL POLICY
Americans have the best healthcare in the world. Some choose to not be insured; others cannot afford it. Every American should be able to get health insurance coverage that is affordable, fully accessible, and portable. I am committed to a healthcare system that realigns programs and creates a system around individual consumers and patients by providing more information and more opportunities to choose affordable healthcare options that best meet their needs and those of their families.
WILD CARD
Legal immigrants have brought energy, ideas, strength, and diversity to our country, economy, and culture. This must continue. But in the post-9-11 world, immigration is more of a national security issue. I am committed to securing our borders and enforcing immigration laws; reviewing our immigration laws and policies to ensure they advance our national interests; and uniting Americans by welcoming legal immigrants willing to learn English, assimilate into our communities, and become productive citizens.
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has a
JOHN MCCAIN
Born Aug. 29, 1936 (Age: 71)
Panama Canal Zone (U.S. Territory)
Spouse Cindy Hensley McCain
Carol Shepp (divorced)
Alma mater United States Naval Academy
Profession Senior U.S. Senator from Arizona (since 1987); Member of the
U.S. House of Representatives from Arizona (1983—1987);
Businessman; Naval aviator
Religion Baptist
ECONOMY
I am committed to a pro-growth economic agenda, making the tax cuts permanent, thus eliminating the threat of a crippling tax increase by repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax. Opening markets and leadership on trade is indispensable to future prosperity. American leadership on trade is critical to a vibrant world economy. Government must help educate and train displaced workers to empower future workers to compete in the world market.
NATIONAL SECURITY
Defeating radical Islamic extremists is the national security challenge of our time. Before 9-11, al-Qaida was basically free to plan, train, and conduct attacks from Afghanistan. As president, I will not allow such terrorist sanctuary. We cannot continue to enrich the foreign oil cartel and petrodictators. As president, I’ll implement an energy strategy of diversification and conservation to break the dominance of oil in our transportation sector.
SOCIAL POLICY
Marriage should be defined as a union between one man and one woman. I would support a Constitutional amendment to define the family as a union between one man and one woman. I support legislation that makes it a federal crime to use cells or fetal tissue from an embryo created for research purposes. I also support banning attempts to use or obtain cells from a human fetus gestated in the uterus of an animal.
WILD CARD
I would fight to ensure a political process worthy of the sacrifices that have kept us free and proud and [would fight to ensure] that the institutions of self-government are respected pillars of democracy, not commodities to be bought, bartered, or abused. I will secure the border, bring spending under control, veto pork-barrel spending bills, and keep taxes low. I would reform a tax code that is too complex and too burdensome. I will work to modernize Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and [reform education].
B.E.’S BETTING ON…
Arizona Sen. John McCain has a 9.1% chance of gaining the Republican nomination. McCain, who is deeply respected both for his conservative stances and his experience as a former Vietnam War POW has the heart but is trailing in both the polls and fundraising. Could it be his maverick attitude and alignment to unpopular Bush policies that is not playing well in Peoria?
HAVING YOUR SAY
BlackEnterprise.com asked our readers who they’d vote for. Here are the poll results and some of what you had to say.
Who would get your vote right now?
Sen. Barack Obama 66%
Sen. Hillary Clinton 23%
John Edwards 3%
Mitt Romney 1%
Rudy Giuliani 1%
Sen. John McCain 3%
Thompson hadn’t entered the race at the time of the poll
Our Next President
Barack Obama shows strength, intelligence, and diplomacy and goes beyond conventional thinking by saying, “Strong presidents tell their adversaries where they stand, and that’s what I would do.” This demonstrates strong leadership; he gets my vote.
Posted by: ljbrazer
Obama!
I believe Hillary Clinton is saying what African American “voters” want to hear as it benefits her. My question is why is she just now [voicing] p
ro-African American support upon her running for presidency? I [barely] heard anything from her prior to now.
Posted by: fda32
Together We All Fall
The individuals that give money will ultimately decide the policy and influence the decisions that will bind the country. Say what you will about Republicans, when they decide to back their candidate, it does not matter if he can speak intelligently or handle disasters, all stops will be pulled to get him elected. I hope to see everyone with an opinion giving money.
Posted by: rodamus75
Hillary! Hillary!
Race issues aside, I believe Hillary is the most experienced and most capable candidate. If we want to get a good start on cleaning up the mess that the current administration has created, Hillary is the one to do it. If a vote were held right now, she’d get mine. None of the other candidates, including Obama, have given me a reason to change my mind.
Posted by: chosenmonk0