As predicted in the topsy-turvy race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton each won the state they were predicted to capture. The big surprise of the evening, however, was Obama’s decisive lead in North Carolina at 56 to 42 and how narrow Clinton’s margin was in Indiana at 51 to 49.
Political pundits have claimed Obama needed a big win in North Carolina to demonstrate that he had weathered the recent storm of controversy surrounding his relationship with his former pastor, Jeremiah A. Wright, and to help shore up his efforts to convince super delegates that he is the most electable Democratic candidate.
In the past couple of weeks, many analysts concurred that Clinton appeared to reinvent herself as a populist, blue-collar heroine and spent a lot of time promoting a gasoline tax holiday to strengthen her base of white workers, even though economists did not appear to support it. Obama took the riskier approach of denouncing Clinton’s proposal, which he described as pandering. Given how strong he was on Tuesday, the voters may have agreed.
“You know, some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election. But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.,†Obama said in his election day remarks from Raleigh, North Carolina Tuesday. “Because of you, we have seen that it’s possible to overcome the politics of division and distraction; that it’s possible to overcome the same old negative attacks that are always about scoring points and never about solving our problems. We’ve seen that the American people aren’t looking for more spin or more gimmicks, but honest answers about the challenges we face.â€
“I think in terms of delegates and popular votes, [his success in North Carolina] almost erases whatever advantage Clinton gained in Pennsylvania,†says Robert Smith, a political scientist at San Francisco State University. “And, the Obama camp must be pleased that the Wright affair does not seem to have had the effect they might have thought, which was good for him in these two races and in the future.â€
Still, increasing his support among white, lower-income voters continues to be a challenge for Obama, who needs to continue talking about economic issues. “His opposition to the gasoline tax holiday probably helped him because it showed that he will not go for small solutions that might have some short-term advantage, but he’s looking for major kind of change in terms of both the energy problem and the economy generally. The only real way he’s going to appeal to those voters is to talk about the economy, the economy, the economy,†Smith says.
Once again, demographics played a major role in the primaries’ outcomes. According to
MSNBC exit polls, 72% of seniors and 68% of blue-collar white voters supported Clinton. In North Carolina, an overwhelming 91% of African Americans voted for Obama, who also continued to win support from a large number of young and white, college-educated voters.The New York senator won Indiana with just 51% of the vote, and securing 37 more delegates to Obama’s 49% of the vote and 33 delegates. In North Carolina, the Illinois senator won 56% of the vote and 61 delegates to Clinton’s 42% and 38. Mike Gravel won 1% of the popular vote. As of today, Obama has 1,845 delegates to Clinton’s 1,693, out the 2,025 needed to clinch the party’s nomination, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Clinton has 271 super delegates to Obama’s 257 out of 796.
As the race continues, there are 28 delegates at stake in the West Virginia primary on May 13; 51 and 52 delegates, respectively, in Kentucky and Oregon on May 20; 55 up for grabs in Puerto Rico on June 1; and 16 and 15 respectively in Montana and South Dakota on June 3.
Clinton shows no signs of bowing out. In her election day remarks from Indianapolis, Indiana she said, “It’s full speed on to the White House,†calling for support to help continue her journey. “Now it is on to WVA, Kentucky, Oregon, and the other states where people are eager to have
their voices heard. For too long we’ve let places like West Virginia and Kentucky slip out of the Democratic column. Well, it’s time for that to change, and these next primaries are another test.â€Clinton vowed to work her heart out over the next two week’s primaries and to win those states in the general November election. She added that she’s running to be the president of all of America, “which is why it’s so important that we count the votes of Florida and Michigan…It would be a little strange to have a nominee chosen by 48 states.†Still, Clinton gave assurances that “no matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party, because we must win in November.â€
James Taylor, who teaches religion and politics at the University of San Francisco, says, “This was the last chance Clinton had to make a rationale for continuing in the race. All we’re going to hear about is Florida and Michigan and it’s going to become about a fight on how to get those delegates counted, which is going to become an ugly situation.â€
According to Smith, however, that’s just what politicians do. “I think privately, the super delegates will start talking to Clinton and her staff and ask her to think about leaving the campaign. Or at least if she continues to campaign, to do so in a very positive
way and not go negative,†he says. “In a week or so there will be public expressions of that from super delegates, particularly members of Congress who are likely to publicly say it’s virtually impossible for her to win and therefore it’s time to unite the party.â€How easy that will be remains a question. “Clearly most Democrats are going to vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever that is. But if enough Democrats are peeled off by Republicans, that could be a problem,†says Vincent Hutchings, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
But on the Republican front, presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain may have risked his appeal to moderate Democrats and independents with a speech about judicial philosophy that he made at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina on Tuesday. The senator vowed to appoint conservative judges who would be “strictly faithful†to the Constitution. He cited Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito as examples of the types of judges he would appoint and used the speech to target both Obama and Clinton on this issue.
“Here, too, Sens. Obama and Clinton have very different ideas from my own. They are both lawyers themselves, and don’t seem to mind at all when fundamental questions of social policy are preemptively decided by judges instead of by the people and their elected representatives,†McCain said.