Roughly 9,000 Democrats pack into Veterans Memorial Auditorium on a chilly mid-November night in Des Moines, Iowa. The attendees of the annual Jefferson Jackson Dinner percolate with excitement, wildly waving banners and cheering loudly as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announces the last name on the program: “My fellow Democrats, please welcome the next president of the United States … Barack Obama.”
Greeted by thunderous applause, pumping fists, and deafening chants, the U.S. senator from Illinois makes his way to center stage, pressing the flesh of admirers young and old. This “six-foot-one force for change,” as he was described this evening, is about to make an 18-minute speech that promises to be one of his most significant. The fundraiser, hosted by the Iowa Democratic Party, is a must-attend event for any Democrat seeking to occupy the White House–especially since state caucuses on Jan. 3 launch the presidential primary season.
As he quiets the crowd to share his vision of America under an Obama administration, the energy in the auditorium is palpable. “We are in a defining moment in our history. Our nation is at war. The planet is in peril. The dream that so many generations fought for feels as if it’s slowly slipping away. We are working harder for less. We’ve never paid more for healthcare or for college. It’s harder to save, and it’s harder to retire. And most of all, we’ve lost faith that our leaders can or will do anything about it.”
As he continues his speech, passion consumes his voice. He jabs the air with his finger as he makes each point. “And it is because of these failures that we not only have a moment of great challenge but also a moment of great opportunity. We have a chance to bring the country together in a new majority, to finally tackle problems that George Bush made far worse but that had festered long before George Bush ever took office–problems talked about year after year after year after year.”
He tells the party activists that “the same old Washington textbook campaigns just won’t do in this election” and that “telling the American people what we think they want to hear instead of telling the American people what they need to hear” will no longer be acceptable.
The audience punctuates his speech with louder applause and chants of: “Obama … Obama … Obama.”
In the remaining minutes, Obama discusses the planks of his platform: his plans to vigilantly fight for workers, help the 47 million Americans without healthcare benefits, enable children to gain a quality education, and end the war in Iraq.
“I don’t want to spend the next year or the next four years refighting the same fights we had in the 1990s. I don’t want to pit red America against blue America. I want to be the president of the United States of America.”
Pundits and partisans have called the 2008 presidential election one of the most important in modern history. This time, it’s not just hype; the campaign issues may define the direction of the nation for a generation or more.
With his galvanizing message of hope and change, Obama, 46, has presented Americans with the real possibility of electing a black man as president. Over the past year, he has created an energy and excitement unmatched by any other presidential contender, bringing together diverse sectors of the electorate–black, white, Latino; young, old; blue collar, white collar. In fact, Ted Sorenson, speechwriter and special adviser for President John F. Kennedy, _another candidate considered a transformative force in presidential politics when he ran in 1960, hails Obama “the new JFK.”
With the approach of primary season, black enterprise _followed Obama on the campaign trail, interviewing him about his platform and his chances. We also spent months talking with pundits, political analysts, party activists, and supporters to gain greater insight into his election strategy and connection with voters. In identifying six key factors, be demonstrates why Obama has the right stuff to win the Oval Office.
1: A MESSAGE FOR ALL PEOPLE
On the stump, Obama has been extremely effective in connecting with a cross section of _voters and framing his message of fixing America’s _problems without the usual Beltway _response. He has hit on universal themes that resonate with voters across racial, gender, and demographic lines, an approach necessary for a black candidate to be elected.
“The black candidate must speak to the issues that are top-of-mind of the voting population,” maintains Bruce Gordon, former president and CEO of the NAACP. “To be viable, the candidate must speak to the issues that African Americans, Caucasians, and Latinos care about. In addition to the war, domestic issues such as education and employment are top-of-mind in these communities.”
Janet Murguia, president and CEO of the National Council of La Raza, the largest national Latino civil rights and advocacy _organization, has noted Obama’s outreach to the Hispanic community: “I think Obama has advocated on a number of issues that are important to Hispanic voters. I was pleased that he was able to attend our national conference and talk about some of the issues we are concerned about, including education, healthcare, and immigration. Reaching out to the Hispanic community is a very important part of his campaign. He has been very thoughtful in trying to draw some parallels between the African American community and the Hispanic community in terms of the issues we have in common.”
Moreover, he has been successful in garnering enormous support from divergent constituencies, including Hollywood, the Bible Belt, and corporate America. “Obama has an ability to excite audiences around the country, and that gives him a better chance of winning in November than his opponents,” says Sorensen.
Obama also believes his message will prevail. “I think all indications are that we are in a good position to win this race,” he says. “We are tied in Iowa, and we cut Sen. Clinton’s lead in half in New Hampshire because we started running television ads and getting out the message to let people know my agenda.”
2: A WINNING TEAM
No one gets to the White House alone. Winning the presidency requires the assemblage of a powerful team to raise money, communicate the platform effectively, and devise a plan to win primaries. “A candidate needs an experienced fundraising staff with a Rolodex that stretches for miles,” says Democratic strategist Julian Espstein. “You need field operatives in the early primary states who can organize, from the big cities to the small towns. And you clearly need a top-notch strategic team who can figure out your message and how you can distinguish yourself from other candidates, both in style and in substance.”
Obama has pulled together a multiethnic team of political strategists and a who’s who of policy advisers. His impressive inner circle includes David Plouffe, his national campaign manager, and David Axelrod, a chief strategist, former partners in a political consulting firm and longtime strategists of Democratic presidential and congressional campaigns. He’s also amassed an all-star team of more than 200 policy advisers, including heavy hitters from the Clinton administration. He has an almost telepathic rapport with his cohorts, having built relationships with most of these policy mavens before he was elected to the U.S. Senate. Obama’s team also recruited a phalanx of committed volunteers to provide tactical support.
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, the second African American to be elected to a statehouse, developed a winning strategy that included securing a broad-based staff of strategists and advisers to help him gain the Democratic nomination and eventually beat his GOP opponent in a landslide in 2006
. He maintains that “putting together a broad coalition of people is important for any candidate. I don’t think that the traditional coalitions are enough practically or philosophically.”
Obama’s team is making sure his campaign speeches, debate appearances, and policy statements set him apart from the other Democratic contenders, especially Sen. Hillary Clinton. His challenges to Clinton’s position on everything from Iraq to Social Security in recent debates in Philadelphia and Las Vegas have clarified distinctions between the two and served to diminish her standing in the polls.
3: THE FUNDS TO COMPETE
Running for president takes loads of money. According to Michael E. Toner, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, it will cost approximately $100 million to be a credible candidate in the 2008 presidential election, making it the costliest race in history. And because Super Tuesday–on which voters will turn out for 18 primaries and caucuses, including contests in California and New York–will be Feb. 5, early fundraising has become even more critical. “The change in the primary dates helps any candidate with money,” says Epstein. “The more resources a candidate has, the better.”
Obama continues to display a keen ability to raise cash. At press time, Clinton led the Democrats with total campaign contributions of more than $90 million, while Obama has raised $80.3 million through the third quarter of 2007. His campaign war chest was bolstered by star-studded fundraisers held by the likes of billionaire talk show host Oprah Winfrey and Hollywood mogul David Geffen. However, he expanded his coffers through a surge in online contributions, receiving more than $20 million from small donors, those contributing $200 or less.
With Obama in the race, the country has seen unprecedented involvement from some politically shy segments of the electorate. “We have more small donors than all of the Democratic candidates combined,” Obama says. “These are people who will definitely show up to vote.”
Adds Donna Brazile, the Democratic strategist who ran former Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign: “Even more than the historic amount of money that has been raised by the Democrats is the historic number of contributors to the Obama campaign.” Obama had an estimated 365,000 donors in the first three quarters of 2007. She maintains that Obama will continue to harness this grassroots enthusiasm into greater political and financial support.
4: THE BLACK VOTE
To win, not only must an African American _candidate communicate a universal message, he must also have solid support from the black _electorate. “There are issues that are of particular importance to African Americans,” Obama says. “One of the reasons I think I can make strong claims for the African American voter is because I have worked more diligently on these issues than my opponents.”
Experience with civil rights is an issue that has surfaced with regard to Obama’s record. “I think people focus on it because I’m new on the national scene,” he says. “They don’t know that while in the Illinois Senate, I passed racial profiling legislation or significant reforms to the death penalty or that I was an attorney on voting rights cases to make sure that African Americans and Hispanics could vote. As people get more familiar with my track record, a lot of these rumblings will fade away.”
While Obama has received endorsements from Tyler Perry, Sidney Poitier, Chris Rock, Will Smith, Forest Whitaker, Gov. Patrick, and 12 members of the Congressional Black Caucus, his major challenge for the black vote lies in his chief opponent, Hillary Clinton. She’s garnered enormous loyalty and name recognition within the black community largely due to the popularity of her husband. Clinton has also gained support from high-powered African Americans such as Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.); billionaire businessman Bob Johnson; and entrepreneur Magic Johnson, who hosted a fundraiser for her at his mansion.
And while Obama led Clinton in polls among African American voters in the weeks following his announcement speech, things have changed–at least for now. According to a fall CNN/Opinion Research Poll among black registered Democrats, Clinton had a 57% to 33% lead over Obama. Clinton had even stronger support from black women, at 68% to Obama’s 25%, demonstrating that gender could be an important factor in this race.
But history may be on Obama’s side. African American voters tend to embrace black candidates–particularly Democratic ones–who speak to the general electorate. “Douglas Wilder ran for governor of Virginia on a Virginia agenda, not a black agenda,”
points out Ron Walters, director of the African American Leadership Center at the University of Maryland and author of Black Presidential Politics in America. By building relationships between young white voters and African Americans, Wilder was elected the nation’s first black governor in 1989. However, he also advocated fiscally conservative policies and supported abortion rights. Adds Walters: “Blacks understand that they have to choose a candidate who closely represents their agenda, if not their complete agenda.”5: SUPPORT FROM WHITE AMERICA
“We know we are ready for a black president,” says Rev. Jesse Jackson, who ran for president in 1984 and 1988. “The question is whether or not white America is ready.”
While a 2007 Gallup survey suggests that 94% of Americans would be willing to support a qualified African American for president, history tells us that poll numbers and election results do not always align. White America’s uncertainty about black candidates is best noted by the phenomenon known as the “Bradley Effect,” named for late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who ran for governor of California in 1982. The popular Bradley enjoyed a lead in the polls over his opponent only to lose by a slim margin on Election Day.
According to a Quarterly Journal of Economics study of voting patterns between 1982 and 2000, whites who belong to the Republican and Democratic parties were less likely to vote for their party’s nominee if he or she was black, regardless of the candidate’s track record and credentials.
“The main obstacle to a black American becoming president is the Democratic Party,” asserts Frances Rice, chairman of The National Black Republican Association. “They demonize black Americans who achieve, particularly conservatives or Republicans.” With regard to Obama, Rice suggests that “the attack machine of Hillary Rodham Clinton and her cohorts is going to bring him down.”
But Obama’s gaining support among white voters in key battleground states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. At press time, an ABC News/Washington Post poll of Iowa Democrats showed Obama leading with 30%, with Clinton and Edwards trailing at 26% and 22%, respectively. And Obama is gaining ground in New Hampshire: The CNN/WMUR survey of New Hampshire Democrats showed that Clinton’s support has dropped from 43% to 36%, moving Obama up to second place with 22%.
It’s clear to see why Obama’s gaining. Traveling with his campaign in Iowa, from the blue-collar enclave of Cedar Rapids, to the rural community of Grundy Center, be reporters witnessed firsthand how his universal themes and frank talk connect with the crowds. At events, he packs them in like a rock star: in recent stops, 10,000 in Iowa City, 7,000 in Ames, and 4,500 in Davenport.
Gary Lamb, former president of the Iowa Farmers Union, says Obama connects with Iowa voters because he’s willing to hear their concerns, In fact, Obama’s held 55 roundtables with Iowa farmers–more than any other candidate, Democrat or Republican. Lamb says he’s a true leader: “Every time we are in our darkest hour a leader emerges who inspires u
s, brings us together, and has the creativity to solve our problems. During the Great Depression, it was FDR. At the height of the Cold War, it was JFK. Now, we face another dark hour where we are at peril, and we need a leader of integrity and courage who can restore respect and dignity to this great nation and truly create a government of the people, for the people, and by the people. And that leader is Sen. Barack Obama.”
John Hachey, the 47-year-old chairman of United Auto Workers Union, Local 1024, says the union endorsed Obama because of “his ideas, his age, and his vision. He represents the next generation. Blue-collar workers are looking for his brand of leadership. We’re tired of the same old rhetoric that we’ve heard in the White House. He talks straight, tells you what’s on his mind, and he’s not ashamed to let you know when he’s made a mistake.”
Some, however, are optimistic about a black candidate’s prospects. After
all, much has changed in America in the past 20 years with the emergence of numerous black mayors, governors, secretaries of state, and CEOs. “I think a lot of Americans have become more comfortable with African Americans as leaders,” says Zoltan Hajnal, author of Changing White Attitudes Toward Black Leadership. “There’s less concern that any individual African American will turn around and serve only the black community. Blacks have held office in a lot of different positions, and they have generally not hurt the white community. ”Says Sorensen: “I think Americans can get beyond the issue of race. “The anti-Catholic sentiment was strong 47 years ago, and JFK said on more than one occasion, ‘I am not the Catholic candidate. I am a candidate for president who happens to be a Catholic.’ And I told Obama to not let them call him a black candidate for president.”
6: AMERICA IS READY FOR A CHANGE
The Iraq War, an uncertain economy, diminished civil liberties. The list goes on in terms of Americans’ dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. Obama offers the change that many are seeking: youth and vitality, an unyielding hope for the future, a rejection of the Washington-insider mind-set. Those qualities have distanced him from both the Democratic and Republican frontrunners.
“I think I have been able to draw clear differences between myself and the rest of the candidates,” Obama says. “We are focused on delivering a strong message of change. As long as we indicate how I am in a unique position to change how politics are done in Washington, we should be in a good position with voters.”
And, in an era when mudslinging is ever present in politics, Obama has made clear his intention to refrain from negative campaigning. “I am prepared to stand up to that kind of politics, whether it’s deployed by candidates in our party, in the other party, or by any third party, “he said in a statement. “The cause of change in this country will not be deterred or sidetracked by the old ‘Swift boat’ politics. The cause of moving America forward demands that we defeat it.”
One of the biggest criticisms facing Obama is that he lacks experience. His detractors say he’s not ready to step into the Oval Office. Once again, Sorensen draws comparisons between Obama and Kennedy, who as a presidential candidate was also a first-term senator under the age of 50. “They told [Kennedy], you’re too young and too inexperienced. You should just settle for the vice presidency this time around.”
Some political analysts, such as Republican former Rep. J.C. Watts, have pointed out that Obama has just as much experience in _foreign relations as Bill Clinton did when he won the presidency in 1992 against a much more seasoned George H.W. Bush.
Another clear distinction between Obama and the other _Democratic and Republican contenders is his independence: His campaign has taken less than 1% of its donations from political action _committees (PACs) and none from lobbyists (see chart). He is also pushing the creation of a transparent presidency–one in which voters will see all nonemergency bills that have been put before him, via the Internet, and comment on them before he signs or vetoes them; his Cabinet will hold regular town hall meetings to gain input from communities on proposed policies; and he plans to put an end to no-bid contracts to major companies. “It will no longer be business as usual in the White House,” Obama says. “There will be a new openness in Washington.”
One thing’s for sure: Americans want change. Obama has the message, the team, and the money. Now it’s up to the people who have the vote to make history and set the nation on a new course. “With the aplomb, the charisma, and the crowds, I have certainly never seen anything like it in American politics,” says Wilder. “It’s happening.”
–Written by George Alexander, Derek T. Dingle & Nicole Marie Richardson