The Final Lap

(Source: 270towin.com)

CHICAGO — Like a snowball rolling down a hill, Sen. John McCain thinks that in these final days he can gain enough momentum to absorb the most critical swing states to obtain the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the presidency. Pundits and pollsters say a McCain win isn’t impossible, but unlikely. Although Sen. Barack Obama’s lead has shrunk in some toss-up states, including Pennsylvania, several national polls show that Obama has had a consistent lead; ranging from a 2.1 lead reported by Investor’s Business Daily to a 13 point lead, according to the CBS/New York Times poll.

Nevertheless, Obama continues to campaign like this lead doesn’t exist. Although his speeches haven’t changed much over the last week, he continues to hammer the point that a McCain presidency will bring as much change to the country as a third term for President George W. Bush.

“After decades of broken politics in Washington, eight years of failed policies from George Bush, and twenty-one months of a campaign that has taken us from the rocky coast of Maine to the sunshine of California, we are one day away from change in America,” said Obama at a rally in Jacksonville, Florida this morning.

McCain on the other hand is dealing with dissension from within his campaign that he cannot afford. On the CBS Early Show today, Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor and top McCain surrogate, said he thinks that having government pay for healthcare is the wrong direction for the country, but he doesn’t think that Obama was a socialist. That sentiment flies in the face of what McCain and vice presidential candidate, Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin have been telling voters over the last week.

A preview of Obama’s interview with Katie Couric also appeared on the Early Show this morning. In excerpts of the interview Couric asks Obama about an aunt of his who is seeking asylum in the U.S., but who might be deported to Kenya because she violated immigration laws. Obama also comments about his anger in regards to how the GOP has treated his wife, Michelle Obama. More of the interview will be broadcast tonight on a special Monday edition of the CBS Evening News.

States of Emergency

The candidates and vice presidential candidates will be in no fewer than 14 states over the next 48 hours, reports MSNBC. Their “get out the vote” efforts are widespread because both candidates are making a play for the states that were won by the opposite party in 2004.

McCain is hanging tough and launching an election-eve sprint across seven states today, which will include several southern states. “America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable. We never give up. We never quit,” said a defiant McCain in Tampa, Florida this morning.

Today, both candidates spent a significant amount of time in Florida, a state that twice ushered President George W. Bush into the White House. Other Southern states are getting a lot of attention from the candidates this election eve and states like Montana that weren’t in play a couple of weeks ago are now considered up for grabs, according to MSNBC.

State polls show McCain leading slightly by one in Missouri, three in North Carolina and two in Ohio, reports the MSNBC and Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. The Arizona Senator has also made gains among political independents and middle-income voters, according to a poll published Sunday (Nov. 2) by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Even though McCain is narrowing the gap, electoral

projection maps published at fivethirtyeight.com show that if McCain wins Florida and Ohio and Obama only wins the states that Sen. John Kerry or former Vice President Al Gore won, than McCain’s chances of winning are still slim without Colorado. Bush won Colorado in 2004, but Obama has a five point lead in Colorado, according the Mason-Dixon Poll.

Early Voting Makes a Difference

Early Voting is playing an important part in showing the impact of the African American vote during the election. McCain’s campaign believes that the polls favor Obama because they place too much weight on a high voter turnout from African Americans, young voters and first time voters.

In Southern states like North Carolina and Georgia, early voting has created a surge of Black voters. Obama will be visiting several southern states today including Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Black voters in North Carolina made up 26.1 percent, of the early voters, according to the Charlotte Observer. In Georgia where a record breaking two million people voted early, 35% of those early voters were black, reports Reuters. Also one in five early voters in Florida were black, reports Politico.

Although these states have been considered a Republican stronghold, polls now show them as toss-up states with McCain leading within the margin of error, reports the Real Clear Politics website. The fact that Blacks tend to overwhelmingly favor Obama, might account for the tightening of polls in these states.

But Blacks aren’t the only ones who are demonstrating support for Obama. A New York Times/CBS News poll reported that Obama drew 44% of the white vote, which is more support from whites than the 39% that other Democratic nominees averaged in the past.

Experts like Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University and Michael McDonald of George Mason University are predicting that voter turnout will be higher this year than the 2004 turnout and it may be the highest turnout since 1960, reported the Associated Press on Friday.

With that many registered voters, neither McCain nor Obama are taking the states for granted. “Don’t believe for a second this election is over,” said Obama. “Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in the next twenty-four hours, because it does.”