October 1, 2020
Forecasters Say Democratic Nominee Joe Biden has a 78% of Winning Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden is a strong favorite in the 2020 presidential election, according to election forecasters.
After the first presidential debate, forecasters gave Biden a 3% bump in his probability to win the election as President Trump‘s performance did not inspire his base or attract undecided voters.
During Tuesday’s debate, Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace, raised false and misleading claims about the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, Black Lives Matter protesters, and refused to condemn White supremacists.
Good Judgment Inc. says its team of forecasters now give the former vice president a 78% chance of winning the election. That percentage is up from 75% before the debate and the highest percentage since an 82% peak in August. In February, Good Judgment forecasters gave the Democratic candidate—who was undetermined at that time—less than a 40% chance of winning the election.
Since then, the economy has fallen apart and millions have lost jobs and are struggling as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Biden’s percentage has steadily risen as Trump’s lackluster response has left states fending for themselves and citizens staying afloat through hope and charity.
According to Bloomberg, Good Judgment maintains a global network of forecasters to make election predictions based on publicly available evidence. The site said Biden’s uptick this week isn’t specifically tied to the debate, and that it also takes into consideration the increase in COVID cases, the release of Trump’s taxes, and the numbers of party-affiliated voters requesting mail-in ballots in battleground states.
FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging, also gave Biden a 78% chance of winning the Electoral College. The site uses a completely different methodology than Good Judgment.
In its election model, FiveThirtyEight simulated the election 40,000 times to see who won most often. In the simulations, Biden won the election in 80 of every 100 attempts and Trump won 20 times out of every 100. However, people shouldn’t take the simulations too seriously. The site gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning the 2016 election.