for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 2 Republican
House seats open: 3 Democrat; 1 Republican
Swing state: No
Red state
Missouri
Poll hours: 6AM – 7PM
# of electoral votes: 11
2004 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
2000 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 0
House seats open: 4 Democrat; 5 Republican
Swing state: Yes. An Oct. 1, CNN/Time poll showed the electorate split, 49% for Obama and 48% for McCain.
How Obama can win: Follow the strategy Democrat Claire Catskill devised to win her Senate seat in 2006: vigorously campaign in overwhelmingly white, rural GOP areas, especially outstate Missouri, to pick up much-needed votes, even if he doesn’t win a majority of them. Do well in St. Louis County, and attract more voters in St. Charles County, a St. Louis suburb that tends to swing Republican but is still viable. Keep hammering the Republicans on economic issues.
Leaning red state
Montana
Poll hours: Hours vary but polls open no earlier than 7AM and close no later than 8PM
# of electoral votes: 3
2004 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
2000 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 1 Democrat
House seats open: 1 Republican
Swing state: No
How Obama can win: Drive voter turnout in Montana’s more populated, booming West. Maximize this newcomer-attracting region’s registration of Democrats and Independents. Focus on education, cherished by both East and West. Bypass the economic message—the state is prospering. Downplay land, gun, and social issues. Be himself–and forget the cowboy hat.
Leaning red state
Nebraska
Poll hours: 7AM (MST) – 7PM (MST)
8AM (CST) – 8PM (CST)
# of electoral votes: 5
2004 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
2000 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 1 Republican
House seats open: 3 Republican
Swing state: No
Red state
Nevada
Poll Hours: 7AM – 7PM
# of electoral votes: 5
2004 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
2000 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 0
House seats open: 1 Democrat; 2 Republican
Swing state: Yes, an influx in population has made Nevada a swing state. In 2004, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 3% of the popular vote.
How Obama can win: Keep the base energized now that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Play a solid ground game to boost the usual weak turnout among Nevada’s main concentration of Democrats in Clark Country (Las Vegas), and rally supporters in northern Nevada. Visit new voters and keep them ready for November polls. Focus on the economy, especially take-home pay and Nevada’s battered housing market.
Toss up between blue and red
New Hampshire
Poll hours: Hours vary. Visit http://www.sos.nh.gov/polling.htm for details.
# of electoral votes: 4
2004 election results: Voted for John Kerry
2000 election results: Voted for George W. Bush
Senate seats open: 1 Republican
House seats open: 1 Democrat; 2 Republican
Swing state: Yes. New Hampshire was the only state to vote Democrat in the 2004 election and Republican in the 2000 election.
How Obama can win: Pursue undeclared voters; they’re 43% of the electorate. Capture these essentially independent thinkers, who gravitate toward new-paradigm candidates. Keep core Democrats on board with detailed policy proposals. Point out measureable rises in the state’s low unemployment. Offer solutions for the economy,