Professor’s Prediction Model Gives Trump 91 Percent Chance of Being Re-elected
A political science professor said according to his model, President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of winning the November 2020 election.
According to Yahoo Finance, Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth, who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996, told Mediate “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November.”
Norpoth’s model, which he curated in 1996, calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said.
The model places Biden at a significant disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. The professor added the model, which predicted Trump’s win in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” Norpoth told Yahoo.
A number of polls have Biden well in the lead. RealClearPolitics gave Biden a 7.8% lead over Trump in June, a more than 2% gain since May. FiveThirtyEight has Biden’s lead within a tight band of 8.9 to 9.6 percentage points since mid-June.
However, in Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.
No matter the poll, the one thing they seem to agree on is that the election will rest on Trump’s ability to lead the U.S. through the coronavirus pandemic. That could spell doom for Trump and his Republican base as the pandemic seems to be getting worse as Trump continues to focus on reopening the country to spur an economic recovery against medical and scientific advice and evidence.
Trump, who is largely pinning his reelection hopes to the economy, may see the economy struggle as the coronavirus continues to ravage through Republican-led states Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
Clarence Thomas’ Wife Asked Virginia Mayor To Take Down Black Lives Matter Banner
Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, a lawyer, conservative activist, and the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, emailed Mayor William Holloway of Clifton, Virginia, demanding the removal of a Black Lives Matter banner.
The banner, which states “Welcome to Clifton, where Black Lives Matter,” is displayed over Main Street in the predominately white town.
According to The Grio, Thomas’ letter called Black Lives Matter a group attempting to destabilize the nation.
“Would you please remove the BLM sign from Clifton?” Thomas wrote to Holloway. “As leaders of this community, you should be smarter than promoting such a group as this, who uses race to foment chaos to destabilize the nation.”
Mayor Holloway said he put up the banner to show unity with many U.S. citizens. Holloway, who also works as a lawyer, asked for the community’s feedback, and many agreed with his decision to post the sign. Another reason Holloway was OK with the sign is the unrest in the town following George Floyd‘s death.
One of Holloway’s legal offices “had all of its windows smashed out of it,” Holloway said, according to the Washington Post.
“We couldn’t go to work there. It was a volatile time,” Holloway believed the town council needed to make a statement right away, he said.
The banner did surprise some in the town, which is about 45 minutes Southwest of Washington D.C. Dr. Jason Johnson, a Professor of the School of Global Journalism and Communication at Morgan State University, wrote on Twitter he was shocked the banner was put up in the town period.
“I went to high school in Clifton Virginia,” Johnson wrote. “I’m waaaay more shocked that this banner was put up than I am about what Clarence Thomas’ wife thought about it.”
The Black Lives Matter movement has resurfaced due to the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and others. In addition to nationwide protests, companies have been pressured to support the movement or face being alienated by consumers.
Holloway has not indicated the sign will be taken down and Thomas has not responded to requests for comment on her letter.
Janelle Monáe And Maxine Waters Give Free Meals To Families In Los Angeles
Since the protests around racial injustice and the COVID-19, or novel coronavirus, pandemic impacted the U.S., celebrities and public figures have been stepping up to help underserved communities in need. In honor of the social media initiative, #BlackOutTuesday, Janelle Monae teamed up with Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) to give away free meals to the Watts neighborhood of Los Angeles for families in need.
UPI reports that the award-winning entertainer and songstress organized the event through her Wondaland Arts Society for a WondaLunch food giveaway program for those impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. The new initiative was designed to help communities who may not have access to healthy food options due to socio-economic factors. In Los Angeles, roughly 2 million residents do not have access to enough food to support a healthy diet.
The entertainer was joined by other high-profile figures including political commentator Angela Rye, actress Yara Shahidi, along with numerous others to give out 2,000 boxes of fresh foods in Ted Watkins Memorial Park.
“I’m really thankful that people see the love in it and see the openness and understanding that the only way we’re going to survive this crisis, this pandemic, is by sticking together and leaning on each other,” Monáe said in a statement according to NewsOne. Prior to the viral outbreak, the singer has been an advocate against food insecurity amongst marginalized groups around the country. She previously hosted other food giveaways in Atlanta and brought it to Southern California back in May.
Costco Bans Employees From Wearing Black Lives Matter Face Masks
Costco employees say despite its public statements about supporting Black employees, it’s selectively enforcing a dress code banning face masks saying Black Lives Matter.
According to BuzzFeed News, employees of the membership-only warehouse club are speaking out. One employee started a petition, which has, to date, gathered nearly 1,700 signatures.
Following the death of George Floyd, which sparked nationwide Black Lives Matter protests, Costco CEO, Craig Jelinek, wrote to employees that the company remained “committed to taking care of our employees, building a diverse workforce,” and “treating each other in a fair, honest, respectful and inclusive way.”
However, things have been quite different at some Costco warehouses. In Louisville, Kentucky, cashier Niko Bracy heard six employees were sent home for wearing Black Lives Matter masks. Bracy later wrote a letter of resignation to Jelinek and posted it to Facebook.
“As a citizen of the United States of America, I have a right to refuse to dedicate my time, my labor, and my talents to a company that believes I am essential enough to risk my life, but not essential enough to stand against my death,” Bracy’s letter stated.
In addition to the workers sent home in Louisville, five employees at Costco warehouses in Delaware, Chicago, and New Jersey said they were sent home or ordered to ditch BLM masks or suffer repercussions, including potential suspensions.
Meanwhile, employees who wore pro-police face masks were allowed to work.
Bracy’s letter which went viral, prompted Jelinek to fly from Seattle to Louisville to personally discuss the situation with the employees. Jelinek met with seven workers for over an hour and said while he believes Black lives do, indeed, matter, if he permitted Black Lives Matter–related gear in the workplace, he would also have to allow other slogans such as “All Lives Matter.”
Costco declined to comment further on the matter.
Costco has already dealt with several situations due to the coronavirus pandemic. In May, a Costco employee was captured on video taking a shopping cart from a customer who refused to put a mask on. On July 10, a 77-year-old woman threw a temper tantrum and sat on the floor of a Costco demanding they cancel her membership for telling her she needed to wear a mask.
Costco is not the only food and retail company receiving backlash for its policies related to BLM clothing. Starbucks, Taco Bell, Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods have all received backlash for their polices and actions related to BLM clothing.
New TalentX Gaming Head of Talent Talks About Bringing More Diversity To Gaming
According to a study from the Pew Research Center, 6 in 10 Americans between the ages of 18 to 29 play video games often in their leisure. Despite the number of diverse people that play games, the industry is dominated by white men. Recently, TalentX Gaming, a marketing agency that works closely with gaming influencers and industry leaders, hired Amber Howard, to lead their talent division, where she hopes to bring more diversity that is much needed within the field.
“I’ve spent the majority of my career in male-dominated workplaces, so the challenges were navigating those waters as a female to be heard, recognized, and respected,” said Howard in an email interview with BLACK ENTERPRISE.
“It also adds another layer when you’re a Black woman in this space, which I’ve always looked at as an added perk to being a female in a position of power. I get a kick out of it when people meet me for the first time or see that the person leading the conversation is a woman, and a Black woman at that. I like to call it my trifecta: a Black female in gaming. I think it’s really important to encourage other women in the industry, especially those of color, to find their voice and break down those barriers.”
It can be even more difficult for women and minorities to enter the industry and thrive due to longstanding discrimination in addition to toxic corporate culture. Riot Games is currently being sued over several allegations of gender discrimination from former employees with potential damages amounting to almost $400 million.
“It’s unfortunate to say but I don’t find it shocking to hear of recent reports of workplace issues and discrimination toward women and minorities in the gaming industry. But it’s not just the gaming world, many people of color and women experience this on a regular basis across various industries,” says Howard.
“However, I’m thrilled to see recent support from the gaming community on some of these reports, but as far as taking action, we’ll have to wait and see what unfolds. I’ve made it part of my mission at TXG to elevate our roster of talent and highlight all the amazing women and minorities that exist in esports and to hold the brands we work with to that same standard.”
With the arrival of Gen Z, who are more ethnically diverse, and corporations being forced to address systemic racism within their own corporate structures, Howard hopes the industry will start to see more change.
“Brands are realizing the power of their consumers and recognizing that they want to see talent and creators that are like them. I’m definitely seeing a lot more requests from brands looking for that diversity, including age, gender, and ethnicity,” she explained.
“As Head of Talent at TalentX Gaming (TXG), which is a joint venture between global esports powerhouse ReKTGlobal and ‘creator-first’ talent agency TalentX created specifically to serve gamers, it’s my mission to shake up the status quo and highlight the diversity that actually already exists within the gaming community. I’m doing that by signing A-list talent, streamers, and creators who are diverse and give them the recognition and spotlight they deserve.”
Edelman Commits $1 Million in Pro Bono Work To Back Racial Justice
Public relations giant Edelman is committing more than $1 million to supply pro bono work to the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) and two other organizations in support of racial justice.
The action is tied to pro bono partnerships the Chicago-based Edelman has formed with the NABJ, CEO Action for Diversity and Inclusion, and The Boris Lawrence Henson Foundation.
Edelman announced the partnerships are aimed at accelerating its ongoing commitment to racial justice and diversity and inclusion within its own walls. The firm says the new commitments come after an Edelman U.S. commitment to 30% racial and ethnic diversity in its workforce, among other priorities. Edelman claims it is the world’s largest public relations firm with hundreds of corporate, consumer brands, and organizational clients. The firm reports it has 6,000 people in more than 60 offices globally.
“This starts at home,” said Edelman U.S. CEO Russell Dubner. “We’ve made commitments and driven progress, but there is much more to do to become the anti-racist company we all aspire to be.”
Edelman will commit communications services to NABJ in support of elevating important and impactful narratives happening in the black community that currently go largely unreported. It will include a dedicated fellow, embedded at NABJ, to mine for positive stories of race relations and the Black community, and leverage media channels to amplify them, an Eldeman spokesman says. It also will include resources across Edelman’s network to ensure stories are found, placed, and amplified as strategically as possible.
NABJ President Dorothy Tucker stated, “Edelman’s expertise at elevating important stories in the media is well-known. By amplifying success narratives, we hope to educate, inform and fuel conversation that will lead to real positive change in the social justice arena. All of that while telling the truth about the very serious challenges in this country and the commitment by many to address systemic racism.”
Teaming with the CEO Action for Diversity and Inclusion, Edelman will commit to a two-year fellowship that looks to combat racism at an institutional level by advancing public policy. Edelman says CEO Action is the largest CEO-driven business commitment to advance diversity and inclusion within the workplace. Edelman is a member of the task force leading CEO Action’s policy initiative.
In its partnership with The Boris Lawrence Henson Foundation, Edelman says its support will work to amplify the foundation’s mission. The foundation focuses on eradicating the stigma around mental health in the Black community. It was founded by actress Taraji Henson and named after her late father, who returned from the Vietnam War with mental health issues.
Lisa Ross, U.S. COO of Edelman and President of Edelman DC, told BLACK ENTERPRISE via email why Edelman is doing this now. She says Edelman’s journey to combat systemic racism has been long, and started many years ago. She added it’s how Richard Edelman, the firm’s CEO and president, sees the world.
“But for sure, we are having some harder, more pointed, more purposeful conversations internally and externally in the wake of George Floyd’s death,” she said.
She expressed what Edelman hopes to accomplish. “Symbolically, we’d like to have an impact outside of our four walls. The financial donation is significant, but we hope our dollar commitment will have leverage far beyond the amount, given the unique skill set and resources we can bring to the table.”
Ross also relayed what Edelman U.S. CEO Dubner told her what he is trying to achieve: “‘I want to change the color and the culture of our organization.’ I couldn’t agree more, and that’s what we’re working on.”
Editors’ Note: Edelman’s description has been updated to “a member of the task force leading CEO Action’s policy initiative.” The article previously stated that “Edelman is a member and now a founding partner of CEO Action’s policy initiative.”
Meet Jennifer McDonald, the First African American Woman To Open Urban Winery in Kansas
Amid all that is transpiring around the world, and beyond the borders of our own backyards, it is always refreshing to capture milestones of cultural progression.
Jenny Dawn Cellars was founded by Jennifer McDonald and her family in 2016. Within a few short years, it has increasingly grown from an incubated concept into Wichita’s first urban winery startup. Last November, the doors were officially opened in the south end of Union Station where it boasts a tasting room, event venue, and on-site wine production.
After conducting consumer market research during graduate school at Kansas State University, McDonald discovered that there was a demand for consumers to access fine wine within a winery setting in the urban core of Wichita. Traditionally, wineries were in rural areas not easily accessible to city-dwelling consumers. She wanted to make and sell wine in close proximity to this under-served market and chose the recently restored Union Station in downtown Wichita.
As the first black winemaker and winery owner in Kansas, it was not an ease-on-down the yellow brick road stroll. McDonald received major pushback with her business model through regulation and licensing.
“It was challenging to finance my business. I always felt like an underdog when it came to negotiating contracts even though I had a business attorney.”
Adding more frustration to the process, the construction of the winery took twice as long and cost twice as much as originally anticipated. There were times when it felt like everything that could go wrong—did. However, Jennifer clung to her mantra “Have faith and never give up” and so she remained laser-focused on her “why” with relentless pursuit of purpose and ardent zeal.
Given the current racial climate, McDonald says the winery has not experienced any racial resistance from customers at its premiere location, though it has experienced the effects of institutional and systemic racism while building and growing the business.
“A lot of people did not initially believe in my vision or my abilities to start and run my business,” she says. Being a Black business owner is hard and she often questioned whether it should be this hard in 2020. “Through performance, I have been able to turn naysayers into supporters.”
She openly talks about the fact that she had to go to nine banks before a bank was willing to finance the business. Recently, it was not granted funding during round one of the PPP loan process. “I personally know a lot of Black entrepreneurs that shared this experience,” McDonald says. “We were approved for funds in round two when funding was earmarked for minority businesses.”
A strong piece of advice pulled from the entrepreneurial journey of Jenny Dawn Cellars is to never go alone. Her business support system comprises five savvy investors, plus a mixed cluster of peer mentors and business and wine-making mentors. She feels 100% supported. If she ever runs into any problems or issues that she is unsure how to tackle, knowing that there is an accessible community of supporters to lean on, glean from, and seek guidance from is the perfect concoction needed at the end of the day.
Breaking into the winery space is no small feat. The vision included expanding the brand nationally by offering Jenny Dawn Cellars wine online now servicing 38 states, with the intention to put Kansas back on the map as a grape-growing and wine-making state. The online service proved to be a power move—especially with the economic threat of COVID-19.
For many years, Kansas wines have been discounted by wine connoisseurs, despite a long and storied history of wine-making in the state. Hopefully, the brand will prove that the Kansas grape and fruit wine can hold its own against wines produced in premier growing regions. McDonald, as well as many Kansans, enjoy California wines, so she integrated the region when formulating her business strategy. Jenny Dawn Cellars crafts premium wines that highlight grapes and fruit from California and Kansas—showcasing them side-by-side in an experience that is unique to the brand.
McDonald was deeply inspired by the economic significance that train stations held in the early 1900s, especially Union Stations that can be found across the country and the place that they hold in our collective memory, reminiscent of when rail travel connected the country and travel was a more leisurely affair. Unfortunately, many of these elegant, powerful structures have fallen into disrepair. Some have been rebuilt and restored to their former glory—a respectful nod to the testament of resilience. In parallel, Jenny Dawn Cellars wines are built on the solid, historic foundation of Kansas wine-making, paying homage to the Wichita roots:
Union Station Chardonnay–elegant and timeless as the architecture of its inspiration.
Black Locomotive Crimson Cabernet–powerful and bold as the conductor of the train must always be.
Red Caboose Dry Rosé–playful and lingering, capturing the last glimpse of a loved one waving as the train disappears into the horizon.
“At Jenny Dawn Cellars, we believe that great wine is a powerful storyteller and we aim to tell a unique story with every wine we craft—and plan to tell many more for years to come!”
New City Girls Series Opens Up a Larger Conversation Around the Motherhood Penalty
The rap duo City Girls is known for speaking their minds. They keep it 100% real about the experiences that have defined their lives and how they view the world.
Yung Miami and JT (born Caresha Brownlee and Jatavia Johnson, respectively), the Miami-based rappers who comprise the rap group, are very vocal and transparent about expressing their opinions through their music.
Best of all, they don’t care what people think or how their music is perceived.
Their no-holds-barred approach to their music is also reflected in their interactions with fans, including sharing personal details and vulnerable moments in their career.
Yung Miami’s Secret
In the first of a new five-part series, Brownlee revealed her fears surrounding pregnancy and her career.
In the video, aptly titled Yung Miami’s Secret, she revealed how scared she was to tell her boss, Pierre Thomas, CEO of Quality Control Music, she was five months pregnant.
“One of the reasons I hid my pregnancy is because I didn’t want people to feel like it’s a limit to what I can do,” she shared.
She went on to share that she was not only fearful of her manager’s reaction but also the impact her pregnancy could have on her career.
“I was just scared because I didn’t know how people were going to react. How my fans were going to feel.”
The Motherhood Penalty
Brownlee’s fears around pregnancy and career aren’t unfounded.
Rapper Cardi B shared a similar experience when she became pregnant with her first child at the height of her burgeoning music career in 2018.
“When I got pregnant, I was f*cking freaking out. Everybody around me was like, ‘No, this never happened before. Every artist that has a baby, they already put in years in the game. This is your first year. You’re going to mess it up. How are you going to make it?” she told W Magazine in 2018.
Understanding the Motherhood Penalty
I wasn’t even thinking of winning or even the Grammies. All I can think about was …everybody is disappointed in me, am I still going to have a career after this baby ? Is this album going to make me or break me ? I need to finish before I start showing .
One can only imagine the pressure and fear both female entertainers felt, amid what should be one of the happiest moments of their lives. These experiences and concerns around pregnancy and career help to illustrate the motherhood penalty.
The motherhood penalty is a term used to describe the systemic disadvantages working mothers often face in perceived competence and pay when compared to their male counterparts.
Motherhood often comes with unconscious bias and unfounded stereotypes that mothers aren’t as committed to their jobs.
Women in the Workplace
But the motherhood penalty isn’t just felt by entertainers and athletes. These experiences speak to a broader, more complicated problem around women and how pregnancies impact their careers.
According to a study conducted by Bright Horizons, the number of women worried about telling their bosses about their pregnancies nearly doubled in five years—from 12% in 2014 to 21%.
In fact, from my own experience, shortly after I revealed my pregnancy to a former manager, I was called by an HR executive and told I would be let go.
When I asked if it was due to performance, they reassured me it had nothing to do with that. In fact, I had gotten a salary increase a few weeks before.
I didn’t dare ask if it was because of my pregnancy. But to this day I still wonder if my pregnancy had anything to do with my untimely goodbye.
It was a devastating experience, and yet it’s something many women struggle with today.
A staggering 65% of women without children worry about what having a child will mean for their career.
Black Women in the Workplace
Black mothers face even more obstacles in the workplace due to racism and sexism.
“In so many different ways, Black women have a harder and worse experience than almost everyone else,” according to a study conducted by Lean In.
These struggles include being overrepresented in minimum wage jobs, being hired and promoted more slowly, and being paid less than men and most other groups of women. Adding the motherhood penalty to that equation only makes it harder for Black women to succeed in the workplace.
Choosing Between a Career and Pregnancy?
“I see a lot of women online, like, ‘I feel sorry for you. Your career is over.’ And it’s like, ‘Why can’t I have both?'”
Research has shown that for the stereotypes and biases around working mothers to be dismantled, there needs to be equal representation for women in the workplace, in leadership roles, and more flexible work arrangements that support mothers.
91% of working Americans agree that moms can bring unique skills to leadership roles in an organization.
84% believe that having mothers in leadership roles will make a business more successful.
Thankfully there are signs of improvements as companies roll out more inclusive workplace policies, but there is still a long way to go.
Women shouldn’t have to choose between the birth of their child and their career. And women shouldn’t have to feel fearful or afraid if and when they become pregnant.
After all, if you ask me pregnancy is the eighth wonder of the world.
Tiffany Trotter is the founder of BraveSelfStarter, a community dedicated to helping newcomers to the U.S. to navigate careers and personal finance. She is also a children’s book author committed to spreading gender positive messages of bravery and confidence.
Introducing the First Black Woman-Owned Skateboard Company
Founded by artist Latosha Stone in 2013, the skateboarding lifestyle brand Proper Gnar is experiencing a precipitous rise in popularity and product orders following its recent feature on performing artist Beyoncé Knowles’ Black Parade Directory of Black Owned Businesses. Posted on Juneteenth 2020, the list of small businesses features entrepreneurs who use their Black excellence as a form of protest and activism.
Additionally, Stone’s skateboards were recently featured on HBO’s TV show about skater girls called “Betty.” The underground brand’s new line of colorful, creative, and original skateboards average $55-$60 each and can be ordered on the company’s website along with the artist’s own unique artwork prints, accessories, and apparel. The products are created with teen girls and young women in mind who love to skate or who are into alternative and subversive fashion.
“Skateboarding has traditionally been a man’s sport, which is why I am so passionate about my role as a black woman who challenges past assumptions and shows that skateboarding is for all of us. I take pride in creating authentic and beautiful art that stands out from other skate brands,” says founder Latosha Stone. “I live and breathe skating and art, and I think that is reflected in the work I produce.”
The artist contributes to bringing more women to the sport through her sponsorship of women skateboarders that are all too often overlooked by larger companies. “I believe that representation is the key to having more young girls interested in skating,” Stone says. “Genuinely loving skateboarding means you have to advocate and support it when you can.”
To learn more about Proper Gnar or to view her line of skateboards, hats, hoodies, patches, t-shirts, art prints, and more, please visit ProperGnar.com
About the Company:
Proper Gnar is the only Black woman-owned skateboarding company in the market today. Founder and artist Latosha Stone channels her genuine love for skateboarding into creating custom skateboards, clothing, and art prints that are unlike any other brans.
For media inquiries, please contact info@propergnar.com or (937) 417-4094.
